SSEN Distribution Future Energy Scenarios 2021

As part of Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN)’s future forecasting, network analysis and investment planning processes, Regen has been working with the SSEN team to deliver a number of Distribution Network Future Energy Scenario (DFES) assessments for the electricity distribution networks in the North of Scotland and Southern Central England licence areas.

The annual DFES assessments use National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios as the overarching framework, but develop a set of bottom-up, local evidence led projections which reflect the unique characteristics and development activity of SSEN’s network regions. The scenario projections model the potential increase of key electricity generation, storage and demand capacity that has connected, or will connect, to SSEN’s network in the period out to 2050.

The DFES process essentially helps SSEN to understand:

• What technologies will connect/disconnect from their network out to 2050
• How much installed capacity of each technology will connect
• When this capacity will come online and begin supplying/consuming electricity
• And where across SSEN’s licence areas these technologies will likely connect

SSEN uses the outputs of the DFES to determine the potential impacts on the distribution network, to provide an evidence base to support future network reinforcement and investment planning, and to identify opportunities for the use of non-network solutions such as storage and flexibility services. For key low carbon technologies, a more detailed, granular, analysis is completed as part of the DFES assessment, producing ‘below street level’ future scenario projections for electric vehicles (EVs), EV chargers, heat pumps, rooftop solar and – for the first time this year – domestic battery storage.

Across October Regen delivered a series of interactive engagement webinars outlining the overall thinking and approach to DFES analysis. The team used interactive software online polling platform – Mentimeter – to gauge views on the uptake of new or disruptive future energy technologies, testing some of the assumptions used in the DFES modelling and to explore some of the regional characteristics for the North of Scotland and Southern England regions that may align with, or diverge away from, national trends. You can view the recordings, download the presentation slides (with polling results) and the event briefing document below:

• Southern Central England webinar (Wed 13th Oct 2021)
• North of Scotland webinar (Tues 19th Oct 2021)

The results of the 2021 DFES analysis were published on 7 March 2022. You can download the licence area reports here:

SSEN Distribution Future Energy Scenarios 2021 Reports

To find out more about Regen’s DFES methodology – please contact Ray Arrell (rarrell@regen.co.uk)