In 2022, Regen was commissioned by the Welsh Government to produce comprehensive evidence of Welsh energy trends to support the development of energy targets.

Regen has now delivered its evidence to the Welsh Government and the resulting consultation is now underway.

Context: energy targets

The development of challenging interim energy targets is a critical step on the road to net-zero emissions. Tracking and communicating progress against energy targets can help to shape effective policy and market responses towards our net zero commitment. Energy targets can:

• provide clear and measurable goals that create a sense of urgency,
• help focus efforts and resources,
• signal to investors and business.

The project

As an organisation with a mission to support net zero, Regen recognises the importance of challenging energy targets. We therefore enjoyed our work with the Welsh Government to build an evidence base for the development of Welsh energy targets.

Our analysis of Wales’s in-development renewable energy projects and technical energy resources identified that Wales is well equipped to take a leading role in achieving a decarbonised energy system.

Figure 1: Example route to an illustrative 2035 target of generating the equivalent of 100% of Wales’ electricity demand from renewable electricity sources.

The Welsh Government is now consulting on its plans for future targets. Based on Regen’s evidence, the Welsh Government’s proposed targets include:

• a target to meet the equivalent of 100% of Welsh annual electricity consumption from renewable electricity by 2035, and continue to keep pace with consumption thereafter.
• a target for at least 1.5 GW of renewable energy capacity to be locally owned by 2035, excluding heat pumps.
• a target of 5.5 GW heat pumps capacity by 2035, contingent on scaled up support from the UK Government and reductions in the cost of technology.

The proposed Welsh energy targets will require significant investment and collaboration between government, industry, and other stakeholders. Delivery of the targets has the potential to transform the Welsh energy sector, driving the development of technologies and infrastructure, and create opportunities for job creation and economic growth.

The Welsh Government’s consultation on their proposed energy targets is now underway, which, along with Regen’s evidence base, can be read here.

Read more about the project in the Welsh energy targets insights blog below:

Exploring progress towards the Welsh Government’s energy targets and their future evolution: insights from our latest Energy Generation in Wales report

The project team

• Joel Venn, head analyst
• Ellie Brundrett, project manager

Ask anyone involved in sustainable energy what the biggest challenge they face is and the chances are they will cite the grid. The Government, Ofgem, the Electricity System Operator and the Network Operators have all set out plans to deliver the investment to support net zero. But is it enough? And what really needs to happen at each level of the electricity system?

Regen is working with MCS Charitable Foundation to demystify the challenge of upgrading the grid to achieve the UK’s decarbonisation and energy security goals.

The project:

The project involves a study of existing evidence including some of Regen’s own analyses. The final output is expected to be a short briefing paper launching in May 2023.

The project team:

Project manager: Frank Hodgson

Project director: Merlin Hyman

To address the challenge of how a decarbonised power system could operate during challenging periods of the year, Regen worked alongside National Grid ESO’s Bridging the Gap programme to produce ‘A day in the life of 2035’. The project asks: How will a very low carbon electricity system, with a very high proportion of variable renewable energy, significant new demand from EVs and heat pumps, and much greater levels of flexibility, remain flexible enough to deal with the diverse conditions that the British weather and energy system will throw at it?

We looked at the specific pieces of the puzzle needed to achieve a decarbonised electricity system by 2035, including:

• How much offshore wind will be located in the various seas around the UK coast
• What technologies and fuels will provide low carbon flexibility and dispatchable generation
• The role of overseas interconnection
• How domestic and non-domestic consumers engage in an increasingly digitalised and data-driven energy system.

In early 2022 we published the first report illustrating how a 2035 decarbonised electricity system may operate on a challenging day in winter with high demand and low availability of renewables.

We have now published the second edition, which adds a summer’s day with significant excess renewable energy. This means finding ways of keeping the system secure and stable when demand is low and the availability of wind and solar is high. Traditionally much of the system’s stability services and its ability to respond to unexpected faults has been provided by fossil fuel generation – by 2035 we need those services, as well as our energy, to come from zero carbon sources.

The report

Click below to view the final report

This analysis was published 13 October 2022.

First edition

This publication was launched in March 2022 alongside National Grid ESO’s Bridging the Gap programme.. The analysis has been integrated into the second edition released in October 2022. With particularly high levels of interest in the project, we hosted a Q+A session to discuss some of the assumptions and uncertainties. A recording of the session can be found here.

View the first edition of the report here

• If you are interested in finding out more about this project or our future energy systems work, please contact Jonty Haynes.
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