Response to Ofgem’s consultation on modelling future supply and demand

From pioneering the Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) process in 2015, to our annual work on network scenario analysis, Regen has been heavily involved in modelling future supply and demand on our networks for many years. Our response to Ofgem’s consultation on this, is primarily based on our views on the role of National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) and how this should interact with regional network planning.

This consultation is the first of a potential series, with National Grid ESO working alongside Ofgem, to consult on the transition away from annual network planning assessments to a new Centralised Strategic Network Plan (CSNP).

Our response centres around the following areas:

1. We see value in moving away from multiple scenarios to a central pathway (potentially with sensitivies) in the near term.
2. Having multiple longer-term scenarios that meet net zero, and a counterfactual scenario that does not, remains a useful framework for network planning, that acknowledges that not all policy energy sector pathways have been clearly defined.
3. We do not see value in pathways and scenario projections being modelled around current network constraints. By definition, scenario analysis should be useful to inform where and when network investment needs to be prioritised, and should not be tethered to existing infrastructure planning and policies.
4. Further increasing the transparency of the FES data is something Regen strong supports. Further visibility of modelling methods, assumptions, input data and approaches to feeding in stakeholder  input would be valuable to multiple energy and spatial planning bodies.
5. An annual FES publication should be retained, alongside the proposed central strategic network plan.